8 things to look for ahead of the final map announcement
Monday November 15th is the deadline for the Washington State Redistricting Commission to release their final maps. Ahead of the announcement, here are eight of the most consequential decisions to look out for
1. Central WA Latino communities & Voting Rights Act
Summary: Community organizations have pushed hard for Yakima maps that enable communities of color to elect a representative of their choice. The Voting Rights Act requires a majority-minority citizen-voting-age population (CVAP) district in Yakima—which would be a historical first. Only Democratic Commissioners April Sims and Brady Walkinshaw have drawn VRA-compliant Yakima maps.
Big questions: Does the Commission create a majority-minority *CVAP* legislative district in Yakima to comply with the Voting Rights Act? If not, do community groups challenge the Yakima districts in court over the VRA? Does the majority-minority Yakima map include the Yakama Nation?
Deep dive: Historically, this region has had a slew of Voting Rights Act violations and legal challenges from historic disenfranchisement and gerrymandering of Latino communities. Ten years ago, Latino communities felt disenfranchised by the state legislative district map because it divided the communities of color in the Yakama Native American Reservation and predominantly Latino Lower Yakima Valley between the 14th and 15th legislative districts.This year, the Yakima region has dominated much of the redistricting cycle after months of sustained advocacy by Latino and Native Yakima community leaders and a surge in Latino growth in Yakima County from the 2020 census.
Initially, all four Commissioners initially drew Yakima-area legislative districts that were majority-white citizen-voting-age population (CVAP). However in October, a legal study found that the Commissioners’ proposals were all in violation with the Voting Rights Act and disenfranchised Latino voters in Central Washington. The Voting Rights Act requires a “minority opportunity district” to be created when there are enough members of a minority group in a region that one can draw a majority-minority citizen-voting-age population district. A “minority opportunity district” is a flexible definition, requiring an analysis of the voters in a given region. However in Yakima, there is strong evidence of racially polarized voting (meaning whites and Latinos vote for different candidates much of the time). Thus a Latino opportunity district must be majority-Latino CVAP, according to the Voting Rights Act Section 2.
Following this legal analysis, Democratic Commissioners April Sims and Brady Walkinshaw then redrew their map proposals to comply with the Voting Rights Act by creating a majority-Latino CVAP Yakima-area district. Republican Commissioners Paul Graves and Joe Fain did not redraw their maps, but instead released a legal analysis rebuking Commissioners Sims’ and Walkinshaw’s new Yakima districts.
Dulce Gutiérrez and coalition members within Redistricting Justice for Washington have held dozens of listening sessions over a period of over a year to create Yakima district proposals. Collectively, these groups have engaged hundreds of Yakima residents (predominantly people of color) to provide input in these maps and testify directly to the Redistricting Commission. Ultimately, these groups call on the Commission to adopt a Voting Rights Act-compliant, majority-minority CVAP district in Yakima that unites the Yakama Nation.
2. 9th Congressional District
Summary: Communities groups are fighting to preserve the majority-minority status of the 9th while removing upper-class Eastside cities for more working class South King County cities.
Big questions: Does the 9th stay majority-minority? Do communities of color in South King County get split between 2 districts? Do upper-income Eastside suburbs, where incumbent Adam Smith lives, remain in the 9th instead of South Seattle neighborhoods?
Deep dive: The 9th congressional district is the state’s only majority-minority district after a fight to secure a majority-minority district 10 years ago. This year, Redistricting Justice for Washington has fought to preserve the 9th district as majority-minority, but also make small changes to the district to consider socioeconomic class alongside race. RJW has proposed removing wealthier Eastside suburbs like Bellevue and Mercer Island from the 9th to add in South King County cities like Burien and Auburn. All four commissioners drew a majority-minority 9th district, but earned criticism for carving South Seattle and the Chinatown-International District out of the 9th.
Commissioner Graves especially drew negative responses to his 9th and 10th district proposals which split the predominantly people of color South King County between two districts. While this created two majority-minority districts, Redistricting Justice for Washington says this move ultimately diluted the electoral power of people of color and split communities of interest in South King County.
Testifiers have also called out the Commissioners for prioritizing incumbents over communities in redistricting the 9th congressional district. The current incumbent, Rep. Adam Smith of South Bellevue, remains in the 9th district in all four commissioners’ proposals. In contrast, Redistricting Justice for Washington and League of Women Voters’ 9th district proposals both prioritize South Seattle and South King County cities over preserving the incumbent’s address.
3. South Seattle and the Chinatown-International District
Summary: South Seattle leaders of color have condemned the commissioners for excluding South Seattle, the Central District, and Chinatown-International District from the majority-minority 9th congressional district, and instead drawing them into a district with predominantly white North Seattle.
Big questions: Which congressional district do South Seattle, the Central District, and Chinatown-International District get drawn into? Does the Chinatown-International District remain intact in the 37th LD?
Deep dive: In the last week of this redistricting cycle, over half of testifiers at November 8’s Commission public meeting called on the Redistricting Commission to place South Seattle, the Central District, and the Chinatown-International District in the majority-minority 9th congressional district. Currently as it stands, no commissioners drew all of the CID into the 9th congressional district, and three commissioners drew South Seattle and the Central District into the majority-white 7th congressional district. The fourth commissioner, Graves, draws South Seattle into a 9th congressional district where the majority of voters reside in the upper-class Eastside suburbs, not South King County working class cities. Organizations of color, namely the Asian Counseling & Referral Services, have condemned these maps as harmful to Asian-American Pacific-Islander communities in Seattle. They are joined by Seattle City Councilwoman Tammy Morales and King County Councilman Girmay Zahilay, who both testified on Monday to call on the Commission to draw South Seattle, Central District, and the CID into the majority-minority 9th district alongside South King County.
Additionally, Commissioners Fain and Graves both split the Chinatown-International District into two different legislative districts. Asian-American leaders have called on the Commission to draw the whole of the CID into the majority-minority, predominantly-Asian 37th legislative district.
4. Tribal Nations
Summary: After being split between the 14th and 15th legislative districts in the 2011 redistricting process, the Yakama Nation has been consistently advocating for a legislative district that keeps the reservation intact. Thus far, all commissioners’ map proposals have done so.
Big questions: Does the Yakama Nation stay intact? Is it drawn into a majority-minority CVAP district, where the Yakama Nation’s voting power is combined with that of Latino voters in Yakima? How many Native American Reservations get split between congressional and legislative districts?
Deep dive: Keep an eye out for how the Commissioners draw the Yakama Native American Nation in Yakima County. Community members in the Yakama Nation and the Yakima Latino communities have advocated for a single majority-minority by citizen-voting-age population legislative district that includes both the Yakama Nation and Yakima Latino communities. Only Commissioners Sims and Walkinshaw have drawn such a district.
Beyond the Yakama Nation, keep an eye out to see how the Commission draws the Colville, Lummi, Chehalis, Muckleshoot, and other Native American Reservations. The Colville and Chehalis Nations have requested to be split between different districts, but some Native American advocates like Yvette Joseph wish to see the Colville Nation intact, not divided between districts like it currently is.
5. Majority-minority districts across Washington
Summary: Right now, even though people of color make up a third of Washington State’s population, only one legislative district (the 37th) is majority-minority by citizen voting age population (CVAP). This means that communities of color only have a decisive say in their legislative representation in one of 49 districts. Community organizations have advocated for the creation of more majority-minority districts where possible, in King (LD11, 30, 33, 37, 41, 47, 45/48), Snohomish (LD21/44), Pierce (LD28, 29), Yakima (LD14/15), and Franklin (LD16) counties.
Big questions: How many majority-minority districts are there? Where? How many majority-minority *CVAP* districts are there?
Deep dive: Redistricting Justice for Washington has drawn several district proposals across the state that create new majority-minority legislative districts in diversifying communities. In particular, the coalition has focused on new majority-minority by overall population districts in:
Snohomish County: 21st or 44th LD
Pierce County: 28th LD
East King County: 41st and 45th or 48th LDs
Tri-Cities: 16th LD
RJW has urged the Commission to preserve these districts as majority-minority by overall population:
Pierce County: 29th LD
South King County: 30th and 47th LDs
RJW wants to create 4 majority-minority by citizen-voting-age population (CVAP) districts:
South King County: 11th, 33rd, and 37th LDs
Yakima: 14/15th LD
Walkinshaw has drawn 9 majority-minority districts in his second LD map proposal, only missing majority-minority districts in the 16th, 21st and 28th LDs. Sims drew 9, missing the 16th, 28th, and 41st LDs. Graves drew 8, missing the 16th, 21st, 28th, and 48th LDs (Graves drew a majority-minority 34th LD instead of a 47th LD in South King County). Fain drew 7, missing the 16th, 21st, 28th, 47th, and 48th LDs.
6. Incumbent Protection
Summary: Each of the Commissioners are trying to minimize the number of incumbents from their respective parties they redistrict out of their current districts.
Big questions: How far do Commissioners go to protect their party’s incumbents, particularly in the 1st, 6th, 8th, and 9th congressional districts?
Deep dive: In their preliminary proposals, all four Commissioners drew maps that prioritized keeping their respective party’s incumbents within their districts. This is called incumbent protection. Community groups like the League of Women Voters and Redistricting Justice for Washington have pushed hard to prioritize communities over politicians in this process. Keep an eye out for how Commissioners compromise communities of interest for incumbent protection, namely in the Western Washington congressional districts 1 (D-Delbene in Medina), 8 (D-Schrier in Sammamish), and 9 (D-Smith in South Bellevue).
7. Partisan battles
Summary: Analyze how the Commission redrew the swing-y 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 8th congressional districts as the state’s districts shift westward due to western urban growth. Keep an eye out for partisan balance across swing legislative districts in Whatcom, Clark, Mason, Pierce, Island, Yakima, Snohomish, King, and Kitsap counties.
Big questions: Does the 8th congressional district expand further west into King County, or go north into Snohomish, Skagit, and even Whatcom counties? Does Tacoma remain in the 6th district? How does the swing 17th LD change with the large growth in the Vancouver metro area? What is the general partisan balance in the statewide congressional and legislative district maps?
Deep dive: On the congressional side, watch the 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 8th congressional districts. Due to disproportionate statewide population growth on the west side of the state, the 3rd and 8th districts (which straddle the east and west side of the Cascade mountains) are slated to shift towards the more liberal western side of the state. In their preliminary proposals, all four Commissioners similarly remove Klickitat County for more parts of Thurston and Pierce counties in the 3rd district. However their approaches differ in the 8th district. Republican Commissioner Fain drew a more swing 8th district by stretching it all the way to the Canadian border, splitting 5 western counties in the process—Commissioner Graves drew a similar 1st district while drawing an 8th district that contains rural eastern parts of King, Pierce, and Thurston counties. Democratic Commissioners Sims and Walkinshaw opted to extend the 8th further west into the liberal-leaning King County suburbs where much of the state’s population growth stemmed. Additionally, Republican Commissioners Graves and Fain drew Tacoma out of the reliably blue 6th district and divided Thurston County into three districts to create a more competitive 6th district.
On the legislative side, watch to see how the Commission responds to rapid growth in urban and suburban Clark County as they redraw the Vancouver area swing-y 17th district. Here is a full list of partisan-swing districts to watch:
6th LD- Spokane County (Spokane suburbs)
*10th LD- Island County*
*14/15th LD- Yakima County*
16th LD- Southeastern WA (Tri Cities, Walla Walla)
*17th LD- Clark County (Vancouver suburbs)*
18th LD- Clark County
*24th LD- Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor Counties*
*25th LD- Pierce County (Puyallup)*
*26th LD- Kitsap County*
28th LD- Pierce County (Lakewood, JBLM)
31st LD- South King and Pierce County
*35th LD- Mason County*
*42nd LD- Whatcom County*
*44th LD- Snohomish County*
47th LD- South King County (Kent, Covington, Auburn)
8. City Splits
Summary: Bremerton is currently split between three legislative districts. Community members there have advocated to reduce the number of splits to no more than two in Bremerton. Likewise in Marysville and the Tri-Cities, residents have asked the Commission to split each locality into no more than two districts.
